The provision of the Cross-Border Convection Forecast started again on the 30th of April
Anyone who flies frequently will be familiar with the situation: You are on a plane and the pilot informs you that your flight is delayed due to a thunderstorm at your destination airport. This scenario is repeated countless times every year at airports across Europe and is not only annoying for travellers, but also for airlines and air traffic control, as the skies over Europe are among the busiest airspaces in the world.
To give airlines, air traffic controllers and other aviation stakeholders an early warning of thunderstorms, EUROCONTROL has been coordinating with EUMETNET and has set up a cross-border thunderstorm forecast provided by the European MET ANSPs.
What began in 2018 with a spatially limited test forecast for some western European countries, has grown into a well-established Europe-wide forecast from Portugal and Ireland in the west to Romania and Cyprus in the south-east. The so-called Cross-Border Convection Forecast (CBCF) is a manually produced collaborative and harmonized forecast that synthesizes the experience and expertise of 25 contributing MET ANSPs. Convection, the process responsible for thunderstorm clouds, is forecasted for five consecutive time intervals for the current and the following day. Each agency generates polygons for its designated airspace, and forecasters collaborate with the neighbouring agencies at specified timeslots and update the charts if necessary to ensure that the forecast is up-to-date.
The CBCF procedure aids Air Traffic Controllers by highlighting areas using a special risk matrix, taking the expected extent and probability of occurrence into account. EUROCONTROL Network Manager uses this information to coordinate with impacted Air Traffic Control Centres (ACCs) across Europe and implement mitigation measures to minimise flight delays and improve aircraft safety.
In 2025, the CBCF forecast season started on the 30th of April. EUROCONTROL Network Manager, EUMETNET and participating MET ANSPs are all committed to ensuring MET expertise during the whole process and deepening their collaboration in the coming years. This mission is in line with the introduction of modern, so-called System-Wide Information Management Meteorological Services, supporting the implementation of the European Air Traffic Management Master Plan.
Related articles on our website:
https://www.eumetnet.eu/forecasting-and-climate/aviation-forecasting/
https://www.eumetnet.eu/support-to-members/aviation-policy/
Related external websites:
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg_impl/2021/116/oj/eng
https://www.sesardeploymentmanager.eu/publications/deployment-programme
