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Collaborative Forecasting for Aviation in Europe

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Once again, this year, Operational Meteorologists at 12 national MET Providers will be taking part in the European Cross Border Weather Advisory procedure for EUROCONTROL Network Manager. The EUMETNET members producing the daily forecast output provides clear, and internationally consistent, information regarding the severity and probability of convective weather across the forecast domain; which has expanded further for 2020 and encompasses some of the busiest routes and sectors in Europe.

The procedure’s primary goal aims to increase EUROCONTROL Network Manager’s (NM) and participating ANSP’s (Airspace Navigation Providers) awareness of potentially significant convection that could disrupt the European Aviation network within the next 12 to 36 hours to support operational decision makers’ effective and efficient management of the network. However, this year, the cross-border weather procedure will also play an important role in ensuring that the recovery from COVID-19 is as delay free as possible. Traditionally weather is one of the major causes of capacity reduction across wide areas of the aviation network, so a collaborative approach to weather management will be vital to ensure its impact is reduced as much as possible as air traffic begins to increase.

Cumulonimbus (CB) clouds are the main meteorological phenomena that this forecast focuses on, primarily as CB clouds can be used as a proxy for possible ‘weather avoidance’. Weather avoidance is the unplanned movement or deviation off the original flight plan requested at short notice by pilots as a result of ‘weather’ ahead. The reason that pilots would want to avoid these cloud types is due to the hazardous conditions associated within them (e.g. severe turbulence, downdraughts, icing and lightning). Multiple avoidance requests will lead to additional workload and complexity for air traffic controllers, who are then unable to safely handle the ‘normal’ amount of traffic, and capacity of the airspace is affected. This ultimately can lead to the implementation of decisions and measures to help mitigate against this by ANSPs.

The service this year has a delayed start of 1 June (due to COVID-19) and will  run until to the end of September 2020.

Example of a forecast

Forecast domain

WMO Press release regarding the impact of Covid-19 on observing systems

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https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/wmo-concerned-about-impact-of-covid-19-observing-system

 

 

ECMWF Webinars

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ECMWF is organising a series of seminars given by international experts to explore aspects of the use of machine learning in weather prediction and climate studies. See below for further details:

Seminars to probe potential for machine learning in weather prediction

 

EMS Session on SRNWP

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Find out more about the SRWNP session that will take place at the annual EMS meeting in Copenhagen.

EUMETNET_EMS2019

European Nowcasting Conference 2019

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The third European Nowcasting Conference (ENC) is organised under the umbrella of the EUMETNET Nowcasting Programme and will be held at the headquarters of AEMET in Madrid from 24 to 26 April 2019. The goal of the conference is to promote recent advances in the theory and practice of nowcasting in Europe and other parts of the world. The conference welcomes participants from operational, research and forecast user communities to discuss methods for improving the quality of nowcasting in Europe. The scientific program will feature keynote addresses as well as contributed presentations and offer room for discussions.

More information on this conference can be found here: https://enc2019.aemet.es/

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Agencia Estatal de Meteorología 40.451200, -3.723930 Agencia Estatal de Meteorología C/Leonardo Prieto Castro 828071 - MadridSPAIN Tel. +34 915 819 882Send a mail: _

ENC 2017

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2nd European Nowcasting Conference
3-5 May 2017
DWD, Offenbach

The 2nd European Nowcasting Conference (ENC), organised under the umbrella of the EUMETNET nowcasting project ASIST, was held at the headquarters of DWD in Offenbach, Germany, from 3 to 5 May 2017. Close to 100 participants from 24 nations presented their latest findings on observations, nowcasting techniques, verification, user aspect and combined nowcasting/numerical weather prediction. Besides the many excellent presentations, there was plenty of room for discussions during dedicated time slots at the end of each session as well as during poster sessions and coffee breaks.

To a large extent, observation and nowcasting techniques dedicated to convective phenomena were presented, indicating that thunderstorms and lightning are still one of the major themes in nowcasting. Furthermore, it could be noted that, even at individual national meteorological services (NMS), a wide variety of nowcasting systems and models are available which can lead to an overwhelming (and sometimes inconsistent) suit of nowcasting information available for forecasters. It is thus not surprising, that efforts towards seamless prediction systems, incorporating a multitude of nowcasting and NWP models, can be noted. While nowcasting is still tied to observations and their short-term extrapolation, the combination of nowcasting with NWP is gaining momentum as NWP systems with rapid update cycling are approaching the nowcasting domain.

While the conference gave an impressive view of the many efforts in nowcasting techniques, there currently still seems to be a lack of coordinated activities. Similar systems are developed in parallel at different research institutes or NMS’s and one might ask if a coordination of those efforts could be fruitful and result in widely accepted and applied nowcasting tools. Modelling consortia, such as those for NWP’s, are not yet existent for nowcasting. Possibly, such cooperation is difficult due to regional and observation specific characteristics as well as the end-user focused nature of nowcast-ing . In this heterogeneous and interdisciplinary setting, it is important that the EUMETNET nowcasting project ASIST continues to support the cooperation between nowcasting researchers and practitioners among NMS’s.

To see all the Posters and presentations made at the conference please click here.

Book of abstract: enc_book_of_abstract
Conference Programme: enc_program

EUMETNET Brochure

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To find out more about EUMETNET’s activities download our 2017 EUMETNET Brochure.